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Mixed Inflation Indicators

Today we learned that July's survey of small business owners showed that inflation might have peaked. On the other hand, there was no peak in today's productivity and unit labor costs report for Q2.

Full story and charts here:
Inflation Expectations Looking Peakish

July's survey of consumer expectations (SCE), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of NY, had some good news for Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the financial markets too.

Full story and charts here:
The Economic Week Ahead, August 8-12

It's a big week for inflation indicators. The fun starts on Monday, when the FRB-NY releases its July survey of consumer expectations for inflation over the next 12 months and 36 months.

Full story and charts here:
YARDENI RESEARCH IN WSJ (August 5, 2022). Investors Intelligence’s ratio of bullish advisers to bearish ones, known as the bull/bear ratio, fell to 0.60 during the week of June 21. That was the survey’s most-pessimistic reading sin…
As of mid-day Wednesday, 356 (or 71%) of the S&P 500 companies reported their Q2 results. Both the revenues and earnings surprises were positive, but relatively low for the third quarter in a row.
Q2 Earnings Season Is Unsurprising So Far

As of mid-day Wednesday, 356 (or 71%) of the S&P 500 companies reported their Q2 results. Both the revenues and earnings surprises were positive, but relatively low for the third quarter in a row:

Full story and charts here:

During the first half of this year, investors were driven by fear of delusional analysts (FODA). They believed that the analysts were much too optimistic about earnings.

Full story and charts here:
US Services Economy Continues To Grow

The S&P 500 stock price index and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield are both up today following July's better-than-expected ISM nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (NM-PMI).

Full story and charts here:
No Recession In Truck Tonnage & Employment

The trucking industry didn't get the recession memo yet. The ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.7% in June after rising 0.3% in May.

Full story and charts here:
Signs of Peak Inflation

Today was a good day for those of us expecting to see peak inflation soon. July's US manufacturing purchasing managers (M-PMI) survey found that the M-PMI prices-paid index dropped to 60.0 from 87.1 in January.

Full story and charts here:
Where Are The Bond Vigilantes?

The wage-price-rent spiral continues to spiral. Yet, the Bond Vigilantes, who were very vigilant at the start of the year, seem to be taking a siesta now.

Full story and charts here:
US Regional Business Slowing; Inflation Peaking

July's national manufacturing purchasing managers index (M-PMI) will be released on Monday. Will investors cheer it?

Full story and charts here:
It's A Banana!

Real GDP fell 0.9% (saar) during Q2, following a 1.6% decline during Q1. That's a "growth recession" in our opinion.

Full story and charts here:
YARDENI RESEARCH QUICKTAKES (July 28, 2022). Real GDP fell 0.9% (saar) during Q2, following a 1.6% decline during Q1. That's a "growth recession" in our opinion. It is widely believed that two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP is an outright rece…
Consumers Have Nothing To Fear But The Future

Consumers are looking into their crystal balls and they don't like what they see. Even though the present still looks bright, the future is looking darker.

Full story and charts here:
Industry Analysts Shaving S&P 500 Earnings Estimates

The industry analysts who cover the S&P 500 companies are starting to lower their earnings estimates for 2022 and 2023.

Full story and charts here:
YARDENI RESEARCH ON BLOOMBERG (July 25, 2022). Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni calls Jerome Powell "the great pivoter" and says the Fed chair is "finding his inner Volcker." Speaking on "Bloomberg Surveillance," Yardeni adds…

Breaking news

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China’s Xi Jinping Plans To Meet With Biden In First Foreign Trip In Nearly Three Years - @WSJ Link
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Barloworld, the South African car dealer and supplier of equipment to the mining industry, is marketing the nation’s first sale of debt linked to gender-diversity targets |  Link
Nakheel, the developer of Dubai’s artificial palm-shaped islands, plans to raise a loan of about $4.6 billion to refinance existing debt, sources say |  Link
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Hedge fund billionaire @StevenACohen2 is reportedly setting up a separate, crypto-focused asset manager to trade spot cryptocurrencies and derivatives. @BrandyBetz reports |  Link
BREAKING: Author Salman Rushdie was attacked Friday as he was about to give a lecture in western New York via @AP Link
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Russia's wealth fund could add China's yuan as the Kremlin explores other currencies while sanctions keep dollar and euro assets frozen |  Link
Fed's Barkin says rate increases need to continue until inflation holds at 2% |  Link
Ron Insana: The Fed may have retired 'transitory' to soon to describe inflation |  Link
Elon Musk says the Tesla Semi Truck will be delivered in 2022 |  Link
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While there’s little doubt now that food inflation is real, measuring price changes can be fiendishly difficult and highly subjective. Mayonnaise is a perfect example |  Link
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US consumer sentiment rose in early August to a three-month high on firmer expectations about the economy and personal finances |  Link
Mastercard is facing pushback from retailers over a new product that allows customers to pay off their purchases in installments |  Link
Investors are fleeing these bonds that protected you against inflation |  Link
Fed's Barkin wants to keep hiking interest rates until there is a 'sustained period' of inflation under control |  Link
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has plowed over $25 billion into Chevron and Occidental this year. One energy guru suggests why. |  Link
Traders expect the ether rally to fizzle out as upcoming merge to proof-of-stake system will be a ‘sell the news’ event |  Link
Malcolm Gladwell, addressing criticism: 'Solitary work' can be done at home but for creative work, 'offices really do matter' (via @CNBCMakeIt) |  Link
DOJ plans to retry Philip Esformes despite Trump commuting sentence of Florida nursing home owner |  Link
The Senate’s budget plan is a step forward, but the work of fixing the benighted American tax system has barely begun via @opinion Link
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🚨TUNE IN: Colombia's new leftist government headed by Gustavo Petro wants to cut inequality and raise money for poverty-fighting programs. It might not be so easy. Join the LIVE discussion 🎙@JPSpinetto 🎙@anjaralop 🎙@mjbristow 🎙@PattyLaya
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Friday, August 12, 2022: Why this sector is strong on falling oil prices |  Link
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Pelosi is so skilled at delivering legislative wins that it can be taken for granted, says @jbview via @opinion Link
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Five Chinese state-owned companies to delist from NYSE amid U.S. tensions |  Link
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