Check out the latest article in my newsletter: US Is The Safest Harbor In Stormy World Sea via @LinkedIn
YARDENI RESEARCH QUICKTAKES. (August 10, 2022). The May 9 issue of the Financial Times included my op-ed titled "Investors are too bearish about the US stock market: S&P 500 still likely to hit record territory next year, even afte…
Yardeni Research QuickTakes. I enjoyed my discussion with CNBC's Mike Santoli on August 9, 2022.
Click the image below to read our full take and see the charts.
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NOTE: We w…
Click the image below to read our full take and see the charts.
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NOTE: We w…
Hooray: Inflation Cooled Off In July!
Full story and charts here:
Full story and charts here:
Mixed Inflation Indicators
Today we learned that July's survey of small business owners showed that inflation might have peaked. On the other hand, there was no peak in today's productivity and unit labor costs report for Q2.
Full story and charts here:
Today we learned that July's survey of small business owners showed that inflation might have peaked. On the other hand, there was no peak in today's productivity and unit labor costs report for Q2.
Full story and charts here:
Inflation Expectations Looking Peakish
July's survey of consumer expectations (SCE), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of NY, had some good news for Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the financial markets too.
Full story and charts here:
July's survey of consumer expectations (SCE), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of NY, had some good news for Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the financial markets too.
Full story and charts here:
The Economic Week Ahead, August 8-12
It's a big week for inflation indicators. The fun starts on Monday, when the FRB-NY releases its July survey of consumer expectations for inflation over the next 12 months and 36 months.
Full story and charts here:
It's a big week for inflation indicators. The fun starts on Monday, when the FRB-NY releases its July survey of consumer expectations for inflation over the next 12 months and 36 months.
Full story and charts here:
YARDENI RESEARCH IN WSJ (August 5, 2022). Investors Intelligence’s ratio of bullish advisers to bearish ones, known as the bull/bear ratio, fell to 0.60 during the week of June 21. That was the survey’s most-pessimistic reading sin…
As of mid-day Wednesday, 356 (or 71%) of the S&P 500 companies reported their Q2 results. Both the revenues and earnings surprises were positive, but relatively low for the third quarter in a row.
Q2 Earnings Season Is Unsurprising So Far
As of mid-day Wednesday, 356 (or 71%) of the S&P 500 companies reported their Q2 results. Both the revenues and earnings surprises were positive, but relatively low for the third quarter in a row:
Full story and charts here:
https://qu
As of mid-day Wednesday, 356 (or 71%) of the S&P 500 companies reported their Q2 results. Both the revenues and earnings surprises were positive, but relatively low for the third quarter in a row:
Full story and charts here:
https://qu
Check out the latest article in my newsletter: Switching Planets: Investors Now
From Venus, Analysts From Mars via @LinkedIn
From Venus, Analysts From Mars via @LinkedIn
From FODA To FOMO
During the first half of this year, investors were driven by fear of delusional analysts (FODA). They believed that the analysts were much too optimistic about earnings.
Full story and charts here:
During the first half of this year, investors were driven by fear of delusional analysts (FODA). They believed that the analysts were much too optimistic about earnings.
Full story and charts here:
US Services Economy Continues To Grow
The S&P 500 stock price index and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield are both up today following July's better-than-expected ISM nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (NM-PMI).
Full story and charts here:
The S&P 500 stock price index and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield are both up today following July's better-than-expected ISM nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (NM-PMI).
Full story and charts here:
No Recession In Truck Tonnage & Employment
The trucking industry didn't get the recession memo yet. The ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.7% in June after rising 0.3% in May.
Full story and charts here:
The trucking industry didn't get the recession memo yet. The ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.7% in June after rising 0.3% in May.
Full story and charts here:
Signs of Peak Inflation
Today was a good day for those of us expecting to see peak inflation soon. July's US manufacturing purchasing managers (M-PMI) survey found that the M-PMI prices-paid index dropped to 60.0 from 87.1 in January.
Full story and charts here:
https://quickta
Today was a good day for those of us expecting to see peak inflation soon. July's US manufacturing purchasing managers (M-PMI) survey found that the M-PMI prices-paid index dropped to 60.0 from 87.1 in January.
Full story and charts here:
https://quickta
Where Are The Bond Vigilantes?
The wage-price-rent spiral continues to spiral. Yet, the Bond Vigilantes, who were very vigilant at the start of the year, seem to be taking a siesta now.
Full story and charts here:
The wage-price-rent spiral continues to spiral. Yet, the Bond Vigilantes, who were very vigilant at the start of the year, seem to be taking a siesta now.
Full story and charts here:
US Regional Business Slowing; Inflation Peaking
July's national manufacturing purchasing managers index (M-PMI) will be released on Monday. Will investors cheer it?
Full story and charts here:
July's national manufacturing purchasing managers index (M-PMI) will be released on Monday. Will investors cheer it?
Full story and charts here:
YARDENI RESEARCH OUTTAKE (July 28, 2022). The new theme song of the Biden Administration is "Yes, We Have No Bananas!" It was a major hit in 1923. The President and other administration officials responded to this morning's news th…
It's A Banana!
Real GDP fell 0.9% (saar) during Q2, following a 1.6% decline during Q1. That's a "growth recession" in our opinion.
Full story and charts here:
Real GDP fell 0.9% (saar) during Q2, following a 1.6% decline during Q1. That's a "growth recession" in our opinion.
Full story and charts here:
YARDENI RESEARCH QUICKTAKES (July 28, 2022). Real GDP fell 0.9% (saar) during Q2, following a 1.6% decline during Q1. That's a "growth recession" in our opinion. It is widely believed that two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP is an outright rece…
Summer Rally
Full story and charts here:
Full story and charts here:
YARDENI RESEARCH QUICKTAKES (July 27, 2022). Tomorrow's Q2 real GDP report may show a plus sign rather than a minus sign before the quarter's growth rate. That's based on today's economic indicators:
(1) Durable goods orders incre…
(1) Durable goods orders incre…
Consumers Have Nothing To Fear But The Future
Consumers are looking into their crystal balls and they don't like what they see. Even though the present still looks bright, the future is looking darker.
Full story and charts here:
Consumers are looking into their crystal balls and they don't like what they see. Even though the present still looks bright, the future is looking darker.
Full story and charts here:
Industry Analysts Shaving S&P 500 Earnings Estimates
The industry analysts who cover the S&P 500 companies are starting to lower their earnings estimates for 2022 and 2023.
Full story and charts here:
The industry analysts who cover the S&P 500 companies are starting to lower their earnings estimates for 2022 and 2023.
Full story and charts here:
YARDENI RESEARCH ON BLOOMBERG (July 25, 2022). Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni calls Jerome Powell "the great pivoter" and says the Fed chair is "finding his inner Volcker." Speaking on "Bloomberg Surveillance," Yardeni adds…
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Citadel CEO Ken Griffin has spent over $1 billion on Florida real estate and now he is investing more money to work in the state. @robtfrank joins @SquawkCNBC with the details. | Link
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The sports network is expensive to operate and viewership has declined...
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Falling gas prices buoy consumer sentiment, temper inflation expectations | Link
From @Breakingviews: Giorgia Meloni’s popularity is soaring. Her manifesto, drafted with right-wing allies, favors tax cuts and fiddling with EU recovery cash, says @LJucca. Yet EU and market vigilance will tame radical fiscal ideas that may endanger Italy’s big state debt
Hedge fund billionaire @StevenACohen2 is reportedly setting up a separate, crypto-focused asset manager to trade spot cryptocurrencies and derivatives. @BrandyBetz reports
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Russia's wealth fund could add China's yuan as the Kremlin explores other currencies while sanctions keep dollar and euro assets frozen | Link
Elon Musk says the Tesla Semi Truck will be delivered in 2022
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"Not everything that can be virtualized will have value," says billionaire Mark Cuban. The Dallas Mavericks owner took to Twitter to explain why he doesn't value virtual real estate after slamming #metaverse properties on Altcoin’s YouTube podcast.
Fed's Barkin wants to keep hiking interest rates until there is a 'sustained period' of inflation under control | Link
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has plowed over $25 billion into Chevron and Occidental this year. One energy guru suggests why. | Link
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Malcolm Gladwell, addressing criticism: 'Solitary work' can be done at home but for creative work, 'offices really do matter' (via @CNBCMakeIt) | Link
Toast $TOST Rallies After Guidance Tops Analyst Estimates
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🚨TUNE IN: Colombia's new leftist government headed by Gustavo Petro wants to cut inequality and raise money for poverty-fighting programs. It might not be so easy.
Join the LIVE discussion
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After a UBS analyst's note sparked a two-day plunge in the drug makers, their shares rallied Friday after they said there is no evidence the heartburn drug causes cancer. A J.P. Morgan note also called the selloff overdone. | Link
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Listen to the conversation with @jillrgunter of @EspressoSys and @nlw.
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WATCH: Britain's economy contracted by less than feared in June, when public holidays had been expected to exert a big drag, although sectors most exposed to a worsening cost-of-living crisis struggled | Link
U.S. consumer sentiment up more than expected in August, survey shows | Link
Wedbush lowered its stock rating to Neutral and kept the $88 price target on the stock unchanged. | Link
The SEC is looking into Melvin Capital Management risk controls and investor disclosures after the hedge fund was crippled by the meme-stock rally last year | Link
Heard on the Street: China’s chip champion had some bumper years thanks to the pandemic. Now SMIC has to grapple with two big problems at once: a drop-off in demand and intensifying geopolitical risks. | Link
Gas prices dropped below $4 in most states—here's how much a gallon costs where you live (via @CNBCMakeIt) | Link
Elon Musk tells Joe Biden to 'free some people in jail for weed here too'
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China tariffs: 3 factors that could affect whether Biden eases the Trump-era duties by @kevcirilli | Link
💰 Love #crypto? Join our community and discuss the hot new virtual currency. 👇
China's housing crash has wiped out $90 billion from builders' stock and bond values this year as debt crisis looms | Link
The San Diego company slashed its forecast for revenue growth in 2022 to between 4% and 5% from 14% to 16%. | Link
Five Chinese state-owned companies to delist from NYSE amid U.S. tensions | Link
