Quote of @Benzinga
I'll be on the @Benzinga PreMarket Prep show in a little bit. Tune in!
More than 80% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are now above their 50-day moving average.

Historically, thrusts like this tend to suggest continued strength (unless they happen in front of a 100 year pandemic).

Will this time be different? I say no, but what do you think?
Looking at the 8 worst starts to a year ever for stocks (as of day 150), 6 of them took place during a midterm year.

The good news is strong rest of year performance is normal.
The S&P 500 had a 21 month bear market that saw stocks lose 27% from Nov 1980 to Aug 1982.

Once it became clear that inflation was rolling over, it took less than 4 months to get back to new highs.
YoY CPI 8.5% versus 8.7%.

Off the peak of 9.1% is a nice sign, but even more interesting is CPI finally came in beneath expectations, on the heels of 10 consecutive months it came in hotter than expected.

A very welcome change in trend right there.
Month-over-month CPI was 0% for the first time since May 2020.

In June, CPI MoM was +1.3%, now it is 0%. That is the second largest MoM decline in 70 years.
US productivity down 4.6% in Q2, on the heels of down 7.4% last quarter. This is the worst two quarters in history.

On the other hand, nearly 3.3 million have been created the first 7 months of 2022, for the second best start to a year ever for jobs growth.

Confused yet?
Today was the 150th day of the year for 2022.

The S&P 500 is down 13.1% YTD, for the 8th worst start to a year ever.

The good news is bounces the rest of the year are normal. Up 8.8% on average, versus the average year gain of 2.3%.
I learned a long time ago that the credit markets tend to sniff out trouble before everyone else.

Various spreads continue to tighten, not blow out. A potential nice sign for both the economy and stock market.
Nonfarm payrolls of 528k, but household survey only 179k.

An even wider spread last mo (713k).

In fact, >1m jobs created in nonfarm payrolls than the household survey the past two months.

ex-Covid, last time was 2013 and early '50s.

What do you think @sonusvarghese?
Huge fan of action movies and I've gotta say that #PreyMovie is absolutely awesome.

I heard it was good and it did not disappoint!

Easily the best one since Arnold. The final 70 minutes is as nonstop action as you'll ever see.

What do you think? Agree?
How cool is it to see @CarsonGroupLLC and my name together?

As you can tell by the second image, I am smiling ear to ear (and I have big ears).

I'll be on @FoxBusiness with my friend @cvpayne at 2:10pm ET.

Should be a fun one and see you soon!
Here are the 17 previous times the US economy created >3 million jobs in a yr (like '22).

Not once did that calendar yr have a recession and only once (1973) did the following yr fall into a recession.

Things aren't perfect, but this bodes well for a slowdown, not a recession.
The US Economy has made nearly 3.3 million jobs this yr.

There have been only 17 other times it made that many jobs during the yr.

Never once has it gone into a recession during that calendar year and only ONCE out of 17 did it go into a recession that following year. (1973)
All 22 million jobs that were lost have been made up.

Here's something very interesting. The previous 10 recessions took 29.5 months on average to make up the lost jobs.

This time? 29 months. (insert scary music)
Sub 4% unemployment rate yet >500k jobs created?

You don't see that often.

Happened 3 times recently (December '21, Feb '22, and now), but you have to go back to Aug '52 for the only other time it ever happened.
Quote of @RyanDetrick

Officially made back all the jobs that were lost.
Anyone see a 525k print tomorrow? If so, we'd have made up all the lost jobs from the recession.

Take note, the S&P 500 took 5 months to get back to new highs. 28 months and counting for jobs to come back.
August usually isn't a great month for stocks, but did you know that today was historically the weakest day of this weak month?

Here's how everyday of the year does. How strong is your birthday?

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