From the @WSJ -- and in the context of today's disappointing data on the decline in the labor force participation rate.

#economy #jobs #employment #unemployment #EconTwitter
It is always wonderful to be part of the "Jobs Friday" conversation with @FerroTV and @RickRieder

Thank you Jonathan and Rick.

#economy #markets #EconTwitter
@economics @BloombergTV @markets
US #employment report is good news for the #economy in terms of #jobs/pay
Less good when it comes to labor force participation and prospects for the pace of inflation reduction
It will raise questions, again, about Fed communication, including its contribution to undue volatility
The immediate reaction of the #markets is to undo some of the price moves triggered by #Fed Chair #Powell's Wednesday remark -- and understandably so as
Wage growth picked up significantly;
Labor force participation fell; and
Job creation was above the consensus forecast.
Away from the specifics of this case:
The prolonged period of very cheap money and abundant liquidity encouraged some asset managers to offer relatively liquid products that invest in relatively illiquid assets.
These products behave differently in a world of patchy #liquidity.
The big event today is the release of the US #Jobs report
Market consensus is looking for what may be called a goldilocks cooling of the labor market:
Job creation falling to 200,000
Moderating wage growth (4.6%)
Flat unemployment
Somewhat higher labor force participation (62.3%)
An exciting }WorldCup Group F yields what few would have predicted:
#Belgium is eliminated and #Morocco is top.
Hard luck to a Belgium team that played its heart out against a resilient #Croatia.
Hugs congrats to Morocco which goes through to the next stage for the first time.
From the @FT article on “a year of pain [for] investors in a new era of higher rates”.
The main contributor has been, of course, inflation and the related “interest rate risk.”
For the reasons I have argued before, this risk factor is mostly behind markets (though not for the…
The usual end-of-month snapshot of some major #markets:
With the first monthly back-to-back gains since 2021, US #stocks have erased more of their 2022 losses.
Most other assets followed suit, including #bonds. Exceptions included #Bitcoin.

#investing #investors #econtwitter
Today’s massive US market reactions to Jay Powell’s remarks highlight the communication challenge facing the Fed:
The more the Chair tilts his remarks dovish,the greater the loosening of financial conditions and, potentially, the bigger the risk to meeting the inflation objective
A big thank you to Jeremy Vine for having me on his BBC Radio 2 show. I really enjoyed the conversation with him. A big thanks also to members of the audience who asked really interesting questions.

#economy #markets @theJeremyVine @BBCRadio2 @JeremyVineOn5
Nice to see football (soccer) on the @WSJ's front page --not only "above the fold" but also above the article on the deepest yield curve inversion since 1981.
The inversion and, more generally, growth and jobs prospects set the stage for #Fed Chair Powell's Brookings event today.
From @markets on "Euro-zone #inflation finally slows in first sign of hope for @ecb."
At 10%, November's inflation was below both October's 10.6% and the consensus forecast of 10.4%.
Good news: Inflation is easing.
Less good: It remains too high for economic and social well-being
.@Reuters on #China's latest PMIs pointing to a worsening of the broad-based economic slowdown.
While due mainly to Covid-Zero's inability of balance well lives and livelihoods, this also reflects a more general gradual exhaustion of the growth model in a changing global economy.
On the importance of keeping an open mind on both the probability of a US recession and, IF it materializes, its key characteristics--this against the consensus forecast out there that (i) a recession is inevitable and (ii) it will be short and shallow

It's about #China:
The start of the week in markets is dominated by China-driven concerns about global demand:
Lower equity #markets in Asia and Europe,
Fall in government bond #yields and, most notably,
Another 3% drop in #oil prices taking WTI down to $74 and Brent to $81.
Quote of @elerianm
The continuation of protests in #China against the #Covid-Zero policy raises a key question with global spillovers.
Will China now transition out of the policy or will it dig in as it has in the past?
The first, which is both logical and possible, is yet to dominate sufficiently.
With abundant evidence from many countries that its possible to strike a better balance between lives and livelihoods,China’s Zero Covid policy is increasingly testing the patience of its society—this as vaccines are available to transition out of the policy in an orderly fashion
From The Economist’s rather somber article on Europe’s economic outlook.

#economy #europe #europeanunion
With abundant evidence from many countries that its possible to strike a better balance between lives and livelihoods,China’s Zero Covid policy is increasingly testing the patience of its society—this as vaccines are available to transition out of the policy in an orderly fashion
Huge congratulations to @QueensCam graduands.

The Doctorate and Masters degrees you received this morning reflect your expertise and hard work.

Well done on your impressive achievements.

We wish you the very best.

@Cambridge_Uni @QueensAlumni

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