4,240
0.79%
4,240
0.79%
12,927
1.15%
12,927
1.15%
33,482
0.44%
33,482
0.44%
1,810
0.17%
1,810
0.17%
23,951
-0.03%
23,951
-0.03%

Quote of @countdraghula
👀
QT will probably end in early 2023, and not because of recession.

It will stop because the Fed can't shrink its balance sheet past $8trn ($8.9trn now) without introducing problems for the system.

The math is below.

1/

(Fed total assets)
Quote of @Neil_Irwin
GDP fell at 0.9% annual rate, second straight quarter of decline.
Initial jobless and continuing claims are all you need to know where jobs market is heading
Bear market bounce? Bull flattening as UST yield curve inverts further
Does the #StockMarket know that stronger than expected data such as retail sales (admittedly more price / less volume) will only elicit a more vociferous monetary response from @federalreserve ?
H2 bond market rally right on track…2.75%
Quote of @EconguyRosie
Historically @federalreserve has eased within 6 months of its last tightening
This year's lesson: sell strength in stocks and buy weakness in bonds. Think deflation; inflation is yesterday's story. Expect the Fed to ease by year-end.
.@federalreserve is going to either pause and/or pivot…stay tuned
Circularity: Bond market rallied because it’s rightly worried about recession. Meanwhile, stocks rallied because of the rally in bonds.
About that bear market in bonds…
Start of big H2 bond market rally right on cue
How much are bonds going to outperform stocks in H2?
Q1 real PCE revised down to just 1.8%. Current quarter will be negative. What happened to all of that “excess” savings that was going to power 2023 consumption?
Fed won’t be tightenIng much when mfg ISM is below 50
Tiny rise in 10y UST (+4bps) today given the move in stocks (+2.5%)
Investors are confusing an overly elongated period of monetary policy accommodation with calls @federalreserve is “behind the curve”. The two are not the same
Quote of @lisaabramowicz1
Official start of QT won’t help either
U.S. junk-bond spreads rise to the widest since October 2020:

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