Quote of @countdraghula
👀
QT will probably end in early 2023, and not because of recession.
It will stop because the Fed can't shrink its balance sheet past $8trn ($8.9trn now) without introducing problems for the system.
The math is below.
1/
(Fed total assets)
It will stop because the Fed can't shrink its balance sheet past $8trn ($8.9trn now) without introducing problems for the system.
The math is below.
1/
(Fed total assets)
Quote of @Neil_Irwin
GDP fell at 0.9% annual rate, second straight quarter of decline.
Initial jobless and continuing claims are all you need to know where jobs market is heading
Bear market bounce? Bull flattening as UST yield curve inverts further
Does the #StockMarket know that stronger than expected data such as retail sales (admittedly more price / less volume) will only elicit a more vociferous monetary response from @federalreserve ?
Sticky-Price CPI - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Quote of @EconguyRosie
Historically @federalreserve has eased within 6 months of its last tightening
This year's lesson: sell strength in stocks and buy weakness in bonds. Think deflation; inflation is yesterday's story. Expect the Fed to ease by year-end.
.@federalreserve is going to either pause and/or pivot…stay tuned
Quote of @AtlantaFed
.@federalreserve is tightening into a recession
On July 1, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q22022 is -2.1%. #ATLFedResearch
Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast.
Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast.
Circularity: Bond market rallied because it’s rightly worried about recession. Meanwhile, stocks rallied because of the rally in bonds.
"Brutal first half puts bonds in line for worst year in decades" -
Q1 real PCE revised down to just 1.8%. Current quarter will be negative. What happened to all of that “excess” savings that was going to power 2023 consumption?
Tiny rise in 10y UST (+4bps) today given the move in stocks (+2.5%)
Stocks Historically Don’t Bottom Out Until the Fed Eases - WSJ
Quote of @NickTimiraos
Code for recession
The Fed is “all in” on re-establishing price stability, says governor Christopher Waller, who backs another big rate increase next month
Investors are confusing an overly elongated period of monetary policy accommodation with calls @federalreserve is “behind the curve”. The two are not the same
Breaking news
From @Breakingviews: Giorgia Meloni’s popularity is soaring. Her manifesto, drafted with right-wing allies, favors tax cuts and fiddling with EU recovery cash, says @LJucca. Yet EU and market vigilance will tame radical fiscal ideas that may endanger Italy’s big state debt
Hedge fund billionaire @StevenACohen2 is reportedly setting up a separate, crypto-focused asset manager to trade spot cryptocurrencies and derivatives. @BrandyBetz reports
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Russia's wealth fund could add China's yuan as the Kremlin explores other currencies while sanctions keep dollar and euro assets frozen | Link
Elon Musk says the Tesla Semi Truck will be delivered in 2022
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"Not everything that can be virtualized will have value," says billionaire Mark Cuban. The Dallas Mavericks owner took to Twitter to explain why he doesn't value virtual real estate after slamming #metaverse properties on Altcoin’s YouTube podcast.
Fed's Barkin wants to keep hiking interest rates until there is a 'sustained period' of inflation under control | Link
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has plowed over $25 billion into Chevron and Occidental this year. One energy guru suggests why. | Link
Traders expect the ether rally to fizzle out as upcoming merge to proof-of-stake system will be a ‘sell the news’ event | Link
Malcolm Gladwell, addressing criticism: 'Solitary work' can be done at home but for creative work, 'offices really do matter' (via @CNBCMakeIt) | Link
Toast $TOST Rallies After Guidance Tops Analyst Estimates
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🚨TUNE IN: Colombia's new leftist government headed by Gustavo Petro wants to cut inequality and raise money for poverty-fighting programs. It might not be so easy.
Join the LIVE discussion
🎙@JPSpinetto
🎙@anjaralop
🎙@mjbristow
🎙@PattyLaya
After a UBS analyst's note sparked a two-day plunge in the drug makers, their shares rallied Friday after they said there is no evidence the heartburn drug causes cancer. A J.P. Morgan note also called the selloff overdone. | Link
It may not be unexpected, but the trend is unmistakable and growing
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See where high earners moved and drove up typical incomes, making it even harder for locals who make a good salary to buy a home | Link
With Alibaba stake cut, SoftBank's Son cools toward China tech | Link
Ciena $CIEN Gains Following Morgan Stanley Upgrade
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2 simple, everyday ways to help keep the people around you from burning out at work (via @CNBCMakeIt) | Link
France is contending with its worst nuclear outages in decades, putting it at greater risk of blackouts this winter than big neighbors experiencing their own energy headaches | Link
“It's playing out as a sanctions action against @TornadoCash ... not an individual associated with it, but the smart contract itself ... a much more nuanced issue to discuss."
Listen to the conversation with @jillrgunter of @EspressoSys and @nlw.
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WATCH: Britain's economy contracted by less than feared in June, when public holidays had been expected to exert a big drag, although sectors most exposed to a worsening cost-of-living crisis struggled | Link
U.S. consumer sentiment up more than expected in August, survey shows | Link
Wedbush lowered its stock rating to Neutral and kept the $88 price target on the stock unchanged. | Link
The SEC is looking into Melvin Capital Management risk controls and investor disclosures after the hedge fund was crippled by the meme-stock rally last year | Link
Heard on the Street: China’s chip champion had some bumper years thanks to the pandemic. Now SMIC has to grapple with two big problems at once: a drop-off in demand and intensifying geopolitical risks. | Link
Gas prices dropped below $4 in most states—here's how much a gallon costs where you live (via @CNBCMakeIt) | Link
Elon Musk tells Joe Biden to 'free some people in jail for weed here too'
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China tariffs: 3 factors that could affect whether Biden eases the Trump-era duties by @kevcirilli | Link
💰 Love #crypto? Join our community and discuss the hot new virtual currency. 👇
China's housing crash has wiped out $90 billion from builders' stock and bond values this year as debt crisis looms | Link
The San Diego company slashed its forecast for revenue growth in 2022 to between 4% and 5% from 14% to 16%. | Link
Five Chinese state-owned companies to delist from NYSE amid U.S. tensions | Link
📻🎙 Inflation may have cooled to a degree in July, but pressures are still simmering.
@johnauthers weighs in on Bloomberg’s Opinion podcast with @VonnieQuinn
Listen to the full conversation ⤵️
Apple:
Spotify: | Link| Link
Germany is on Track to Meeting its Gas Saving Target | Link
Bitcoin mining hosting firm @APLDBlockchain signed a $15 million loan with a North Dakota bank to pay off its debt and continue building its data centers.
@egreechee reports
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There's more than one important number when it comes to inflation. Bloomberg's @TheStalwart explains how to interpret the latest CPI data | Link
A judge said Robinhood must face claims that it manipulated the market during "meme stock" madness
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Danny Moses bet against the housing market and made A TON of money in 2008
Now, he's set his bearish sights $TSLA 👀
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34% of younger workers are thinking of switching jobs due to company's stance on abortion, post Roe (via @CNBCMakeIt) | Link
Preliminary figures from the University of Michigan's consumer survey indicate that consumer sentiment is increasing as economic conditions show signs of improving. | Link
Investors should buy the latest rally in stocks as cooling inflation means lower peak interest rates, JPMorgan Asset Management's chief strategist says | Link
Many retailers that had too little to offer during the early stages of the pandemic now have too much of everything—from bikes to barbecue grills. They amassed the extra inventory because they expected sustained demand and supply-chain problems | Link
BTC was down by 4%, while ETH declined by 2%. Leon Li, founder of Huobi Global, is in talks to sell a majority stake of the firm, according to a report.
@LedesmaLyllah and @godbole17
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Falling gasoline price buoying consumer sentiment, Univ. of Mich. data suggest | Link