How many Russian oil barrels will be bought under the G7 oil price cap by January (with paperwork 'attesting' the price under $60 a barrel):
The $60-a-barrel applies, according to EU document, to "petroleum oil" -- without distinguishing any of the main different Russian grades (Urals, Siberian Light, ESPO). Currently, Urals trades below the $60 limit, so effectively the cap is meaningless for it. ESPO trades above.
OPEC+ appears ready to become a "spectator" of the market (as one delegate put it to me) as the G7 oil price cap talks continue. As things stand, it's likely to keep its output unchanged when it meets virtually Dec 4, although a small cut isn't completely ruled out | #OOTT 1/4
"The reason the Greenspan put worked was that the market believed in it. The same can’t be said for President Joe Biden’s putative oil put." - @liamdenning
The wind speed has started to improve across Europe, easing pressure on electricity and gas markets. It could be short-lived, however, with potential for again low winds in continental Europe by early next week. But, for now, it's blowing again | #EnergyCrisis
CHART OF THE DAY: The FAO food price index fell slightly last month, bringing the year-on-year % change to just +0.3%. Wholesale agri commodity prices remain high, but the inflation wave has ended.

I wrote about this trend a few days ago: @opinion
CHART OF THE DAY: Electricity prices in the Nordic region have jumped to sky high levels so far this week, overshadowing the tightness in Germany, France and the UK. On a weekly average, Nordpool day-head is just under €350 per MWh, its second highest weekly ever | #EnergyCrisis
COLUMN: The number of new offshore wind power turbines ordered in Q3 from European manufacturers?

Zero. Nada. Rien. Nichts.

My latest @opinion column on the 'other' European energy crisis: one of permitting obstacles, windfall taxes and soaring costs.
Newcastle thermal coal is back to ~$400 a tonne
The meteorological winter starts today.
(The astronomical one starts on Dec 21st)

From now, the European energy market faces the ~90 coldest days of the year. Brace yourself. This is not over | #OOTT #LNG #CoalTwitter #EnergyCrisis
Quote of @dgelles
As I wrote last week, energy security is the theme, not climate change:

And that’s the case from senior business people to senior government officials. Not a myth, just reality.
“I actually believe we’re going to need hydrocarbons for 70 years.”- BlackRock CEO Larry Fink at @dealbook just now
OIL MARKET: New @EIAgov data shows stronger US oil demand than previously thought.

September total oil demand pegged at 20.470 m/d based on **monthly** data, up ~530,000 b/d from 19.938m b/d based on **weekly** data.

The new Sep 2022 data puts the month above Sep 2019 level.
Quote of @EIA_One
Important thread from the head of the @EIAgov addressing the adjusting factor issue (aka 'missing barrels') and laying out a 90-day effort to identify/resolve the problem.

Kudos to the EIA team for responding to the issue (see here my earlier take: )
In the @EIAgov Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today, we had another large crude oil adjustment of 1.45 million barrels per day. Let’s talk a little bit about this “adjustment” term. #OOTT

A thread.
And my below piece is confirmed.

With data now available for Nov 1-Nov 29, Russian oil output (crude and condensate) has climbed to 10.9m b/d, the highest since March. Vladimir Putin has managed to reverse nearly all its country's oil production losses.
CHART OF THE DAY: Arabica coffee prices are down 35% from their recent February peak, when they hit a 11-year high.

More via the Bloomberg's daily energy and commodities newsletter: Elements. Subscribe (free) here: | #OATT #Coffee ☕️
CHART OF THE DAY: Arabica coffee prices are down 35% from their recent February peak, when they hit a 11-year high. The reason? Forecasts for a better crop next year in Brazil, the world’s top producer | #OATT #Coffee ☕️
OIL MARKET: Over the last twelve months, US commercial crude inventories have fallen 14.0 million barrels. Over the same period, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down 213.4 million barrels | #OOTT
US total oil exports (crude + refined products) surged last week to a fresh all-time high, reaching almost 11.8m b/d. The export boom has triggered a large drop in domestic commercial inventories. The US remains the barrel of last resort to the global economy | #OOTT
Cotton prices are down ~50% since May.

That's great news if you are shopping for some t-shirts (or if you are a central banker worried about inflation)

My latest dispatch for Elements, the daily energy and commodity newsletter from Bloomberg, is below.
Germany is burning a lot of coal (~45% of all electricity generation) as wind stops blowing.

It’s electricity carbon intensity jumped to a crazy 745 grams (CO2 gr per KWh) this evening — higher than in South Africa and India

Closing nuclear matters | #Energiewende h/t @ckazok
The Christmas shopping plan in Vienna ruined...
OPEC+ has moved its December 4th (Sunday) meeting to a virtual gathering, according to delegates | #OOTT
Germany signs a 15-year long-term LNG import contract with Qatar (starting from 2026). After all, Berlin decided it does need LNG imports going on as long as into the early 2040s. Security of energy supply trumps everything else | #EnergyCrisis 🇶🇦🔥🇩🇪

Breaking news

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U.S. Treasury says oil price cap 'institutionalizing' Russian crude discounts |  Link
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