The sovereign credit rating of France has changed to Negative from Stable by @SPGlobalRatings
Quote of @Schuldensuehner
#Fed deleveraging continues as balance sheet keeps shrinking. Total assets dropped by $37bn in the past week to $8,584.6bn, the lowest level since Nov 2021. Fed balance sheet equates to 33.4% vs #ECB's 78%, BoJ's 128%.
Quote of @charliebilello
Prices Paid component of ISM Manufacturing hit a 30-month low in November. During the inflationary spikes of the 1970s/80s, a downturn in Prices Paid was a leading indicator of lower inflation rates to come, which was also associated with US recessions in both of those periods.
Quote of @woogidyboogidy
Citing hard data is AWESOME @woogidyboogidy

I couldn’t agree more!

Next time I’m wherever you are, I’m buying you a beer! I mean, how much more interesting are you that you dig beneath headlines rather than baa-baa like all the other sheep?

Let’s hear it for @woogidyboogidy !
Reply to @DiMartinoBooth
@DiMartinoBooth Same guy has been saying the same thing forever. 😴
Quote of @zerohedge
A third of the payrolls number was based on excel modeling:

"The 49% Establishment survey response rate was much lower than the 70-75% rate typical in November" - Goldman
Quote of @energyvamp1re
YOU @energyvampire37 are quite fortunate. I was just going through with my mom, who lives in the middle of nowhere in TX, how many of her neighbors in the country died of COVID over Thanksgiving when we were giving thanks. And my mom is HIGHLY suspicious of DC.

I’m happy for you
Reply to @ComplexDigi
@ComplexDigi @DiMartinoBooth That's exactly what it is, anecdotal. The numbers mean more to me than refrigerator trucks. You know how many people I personally know that died from COVID? Zero. That's anecdotal too
@energyvamp1re @DiMartinoBooth I guess if you wanna call the refrigerator truck full of bodies behind my hospital last year. anecdotal. And all the patients I see on a daily basis. And this:
Quote of @okcill
Last sustained job loss cycle started in GFC.

@Quillintel we call 2020 a 2-month flash recession followed by biggest monetary-financed fiscal bailout in history

We’re at an inflection point in a job market impaired by a permanent downshift in the labor force participation rate.
Reply to @DiMartinoBooth
@DiMartinoBooth Why is establishment and household so far apart? Normal holiday season data adjustments? CoVID data artifacts?
Quote of @GoldTelegraph_
We now interrupt your first Friday in December 2022 trading day…
If you think you are having a bad year… remember this is not you.
Quote of @Stimpyz1
Can someone please remind me which firm was the VERY first to begin liquidating its single-family rental portfolio??

“Reverse Mortgage Funding, a home lender backed by Starwood Capital Group, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy this week.” @business
Reply to @gamesblazer06
@gamesblazer06 Translation: he is hurting Starwood earnings when he takes the free money away.
“You are going to have a Major Crash in the Housing Market… The Fed needs to Pump the Brakes on Rate Hikes…. If it doesn’t it will cause a ‘Serious Recession’”

“They are attacking the economy with a Sledgehammer & they don’t need to.”

Barry Sternlicht, Sep 15, 2022
Quote of @EconguyRosie
Houston! Pick up!!
Fade the "no recession" narrative. Tack on the shrinking workweek, and payrolls fell 117k. The Household survey sagged 138k after -328k in Oct, the sharpest decline since March-April 2020.

Quote of @EconguyRosie
Bond market figuring out how to reverse that knee-jerk in a hurry.
Oh, and as for that hot U.S. wage number. If not for the slide in hours worked (the denominator!), average hourly earnings would actually have come in below expected, at +0.26% MoM. Quick, Mortimer — buy those bonds back!

Quote of @EconguyRosie
Houston? Come in, Houston.
Adding to the insanity of this payroll report, the birth-death model added 110k jobs. Sure thing. So net this out and adjust for the shrinking workweek, and the real NFP number was -227K — and aligned with the recession message from the Household survey.

Quote of @mikebelshe
Seriously people still debating if he was just naive??!!
Quote of @livelife4ever4
A rubber band moment.
Reply to @DiMartinoBooth
@DiMartinoBooth @t1alpha Danielle, can you explain why the markets are down, but $VIX is flat to negative? What does that portend?
Don’t unfasten those seatbelts @t1alpha warns “The one-YEAR VIX, as proxied by a one-year variance swap, remains elevated and unphased by the recent rally. At 26%, it's implying daily moves of roughly 1.3% per day for 2023.”
Quote of @RudyHavenstein
To Rudy’s point, market veterans know hours ALWAYS precede bodies. This is backed by four straight monthly declines in temp workers. Stock jocks pay attention to headlines. Professionals read past the headlines to look ahead.
Quote of @LizAnnSonders
Falling alongside Quits & hours worked…employees starting to see writing on the wall.
Job leavers as % of unemployed fell to 13.9% … off high but still elevated relative to history
Don’t unfasten those seatbelts @t1alpha warns “The one-YEAR VIX, as proxied by a one-year variance swap, remains elevated and unphased by the recent rally. At 26%, it's implying daily moves of roughly 1.3% per day for 2023.”
WHICH survey is LYING?

Hint: Birth/Death MAINTAINED record high input and Information & Transportation LED gains.

ht @profplum99

A HUGE cc @FreightAlley
This goes beyond WFH.

Owen Thomas CEO @bxpboston “Premier workplaces as defined by CBRE represent only 17% of office inventory in five CBDs (central business districts) where we operate…”

Q3 end 9.1% vacancy rate for premier workplaces v 14.8% rest of market

cc @danjmcnamara
Quote of @NewsLambert
Peak-to-trough, John Burns Real Estate Consulting's revised forecast predicts that U.S. home prices will fall 20% to 22%.

@JBREC predicts that by late 2024, we'll be back to late 2020 price levels.

Core assumption: IF mortgage rates stay relativity close to 6% through 2023.
Quote of @danbellock
Succinct & sage take.
Reply to @danbellock
@windgineering @DiMartinoBooth @business I think we have a Mexican standoff situation. Not a whole lot of action until someone flinches. Then when the comps start coming in lower sellers can no longer ignore reality. The scary X factor is all the institutional and Airbnb sellers....
@windgineering @DiMartinoBooth @business When what were once starter homes in 2008 are have gone up 350% you have a problem.
Quote of @STXRGAL999
My friend Ellen Zentner @MorganStanley has as good a track record as any on sell side. She’s expecting 180k

My favorite labor market guru who’s WAY far off Street @PhilippaDunne expects 175k & unemployment rate to tick up to 3.8%

I’ll be watching from my vacation perch at beach
Reply to @DiMartinoBooth
@DiMartinoBooth Jobs report morrow. what's the good word Danielle.
Good riddance to my 300 bot followers. Maybe there will be less garbage on my feed as a result!

“Twitter is purging a lot of spam/scam accounts right now, so you may see your follower count drop.”
Good riddance to my 300 bot followers. Maybe there will be less garbage on my feed as a result!

“Twitter is purging a lot of spam/scam accounts right now, so you may see your follower count drop.”
Quote of @ClownRoman
If that’s the case, he’s got a more FREQUENT voice than most as Chicago & Cleveland have quirk of being Fed District presidents who vote every OTHER year (NY Fed permanent voter while other 9 rotate in every third year).

This makes Mester all the more critical a hawkish offset.
Reply to @DiMartinoBooth
@DiMartinoBooth @ChicagoFed @DowJones He will push for universal basic income 🙈
Austan Goolsbee, who served as top economic adviser to Obama, will become next president and chief executive of @ChicagoFed

Goolsbee, 53, is a professor of economics at University of Chicago's Booth School of Business & was WH Council of Economic Advisers from 2010-11


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