Quote of @leadlagreport
I agree with Gayed here
I believe the conditions now favor an imminent stock market crash.

A 🧵. 👇 (1/20)
The independent European macro power-house Steno Research is ready to onboard institutional client relationships now.

Contact me at andreassteno@stenoresearch.dk , if you are interested in a discussion.
Delay after delay after delay in French nuclear electricity production. A big issue for this winter!

Thanks to @LionHirth for bringing this visual to my attention
Establishment versus household job survey

Whats going on?

H/t to @MacroAlf for bringing my attention to the chart
Boligprisfald på 15-20% forude? Vi kigger på prognoserne og sammenligner Danmarks marked med resten af verden.

Lyt med hver mandag og fredag i @Milliardklubben

#dkpol #dkfinans #dkbiz #dkmedier
So, is the inflation has not peaked yet crowd still awake?
We launch our first Watch Series on Real Estate

Our base-case is a drawdown of 15-20% in 2023, but which markets will suffer the most?

A short thread 1/n
This week in retail sales:

Sweden -7.7% since a year ago
Germany -5% since a year ago

Material downside to expectations. The demand side is falling apart these weeks

But sure, keep cheering on a slowing rate hike pace
Powell said what equity bulls and $- bears wanted to hear. Slowing pace of hikes = The "vanilla" conclusion is obviously to sell USD and buy stocks.. BUT..

Meanwhile German electricity prices are on the rise again, while Dutch Natural Gas trades 10% up just today

Stay focused!
Chicago PMI at 37.2 😱

Growth dissapoints and inflation softens

Got Bonds?
Quote of @MichaelAArouet
Sweden looks worse than 2008 and it is often the canary in the European coalmine
Sweden, canary in the coal mine for the Eurozone? 👇 Chart @Lvieweconomics
A little teaser from our Real Estate Watch released tomorrow

NIER survey hints at >30% drop in Swedish Real Estate prices on historical correlations
Huge downside surprise in Spanish inflation.. Phew
Here is the inflation in fertilizers that Dutch farmers are faced with before even considering the ESG initiatives.

No wonder they are angry
China vs. German CO2 emissions. Good luck reaching those 2050 targets without China.

H/T to @TgMacro for bringing this chart to my attention.
The weather is now in control of ECB policy

Rain and warm weather = easier policy

Snow and minus degrees = more hikes

It is weird isnt it?
Hallelujah, we are back at 10% inflation in Germany..

The PPI hints at 7.5-8% inflation next month, but we are in any case very far from acceptable levels and remember that this is on the back of a material retracement in energy prices over the past couple of months..
Quote of @BurggrabenH
A lack of wind in UK and WUPTI ... Natural Gas prices are back up..
NBP back at 319p/therm. Quite something

#TTF #NBP $SQZ @kittysquiddy
Seems like Energy is either the best performer or the worst performer on a daily basis currently
It is a disgrace to play football there, but it is a tremendous idea to buy Nat Gas from them over the next 15 years...

Hypocrisy 101
Quote of @MikaelSarwe
Look at Swedish retail sales.. Wow, just wow..
🇸🇪 Weakest retail sales numbers ever. -7.7% y/y. And it looks like it could get worse...
The thing I love the most about the self-proclaimed Twitter police is that one is NOT allowed to tweet a chart of a 100% public time series from Bloomberg without h/t’ing the person who spend 2-3 seconds pulling the chart first

It is hillariously stupid

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