U.S. consumer sentiment up more than expected in August, survey shows
Wedbush lowered its stock rating to Neutral and kept the $88 price target on the stock unchanged.
The SEC is looking into Melvin Capital Management risk controls and investor disclosures after the hedge fund was crippled by the meme-stock rally last year
While there’s little doubt now that food inflation is real, the key question is by how much? The answer isn’t straightforward, but mayonnaise can help answer it
Heard on the Street: China’s chip champion had some bumper years thanks to the pandemic. Now SMIC has to grapple with two big problems at once: a drop-off in demand and intensifying geopolitical risks.
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Texas’ two Republican senators aren’t fans of the Inflation Reduction Act. Yet few states stand to gain as much from it as theirs does via @opinion
Colombia's new leftist government wants to cut inequality by redistributing wealth, rethinking the war on drugs, and raising money for poverty-fighting programs. It won't be so easy.

🚨Tune in for a discussion with our LatAm team at 11 a.m. ET
📻🎙 Inflation may have cooled to a degree in July, but pressures are still simmering.

@johnauthers weighs in on Bloomberg’s Opinion podcast with @VonnieQuinn

Listen to the full conversation ⤵️
Bitcoin mining hosting firm @APLDBlockchain signed a $15 million loan with a North Dakota bank to pay off its debt and continue building its data centers. @egreechee reports
Polio detected in New York City sewage suggesting local circulation of virus, health officials say


Gartman to Recommend Akron Endowment Cut Stocks by Another 2%-3% All in
University of Michigan: Median expected year-ahead inflation rate fell to 5.0%, its lowest since February but above the 4.6% reading from a year ago. At 3.0%, median long run inflation expectations remained within the 2.9-3.1% range seen over the past year |  Link
UK To Reverse "Accidental" Ban On Edible Insect Farming |  Link
Wet dog capital management
Even if Brent is spot on with this Tweet, it makes me think whether sentiment on Europe can get any worse by now?
Now 12-13x higher. Given the macro risks on the horizon for Europe (e.g. Italian elections, further energy squeezes into Winter with subsequent growth shocks) & the Fed likely to keep policy tight... New trade! Short EUR/USD @ 1.026 Stop loss @ 1.05 First target @ 0.99
Jeff Currie from Goldman Sachs: "Today, commodity markets appear to hold irrational expectations, as prices and inventories fall together, demand beats expectations and supply disappoints."
Democrat sentiment actually tumbled to a 2 year low, while Republican/Independent sentiment rose
New Post: How to Think About Investing During a Recession... |  Link
The war in Ukraine has likely sent Russia's economy back to 2018 — but it's still a smaller contraction than experts expected. |  Link
The daily chart of composite grain prices (Wheat, Corn, Beans) is forming an inverted H&S, yet the trend is strongly down. Most periods of congestion are resolved in the direction of the primary trend. $ZC_F $ZW_F $ZS_F Important #WASDE report pending today
UMich Sentiment Jumps But Long-Term Inflation Expectations Unexpectedly Rise |  Link
Nice bounce back for the semis this week. $SMH is up 7.3% since its low on Tuesday. NVIDIA $NVDA lowered guidance on Monday and fell 10% through Tuesday's close, but it's now down just 2.4% on the week.
• U.S U. of Mich. Sentiment (Aug P) 55.1; Consensus 52.5 • U.S U. of Mich Current Conditions. 55.5; Consensus 57.8 • U.S U. of Mich. Expectations 54.9; Consensus 48.5. • U.S U. of Mich. 1 yr Inflation 5%; Consensus 5.1%; • 5-10 yr Inflation 3%; Consensus 2.8%;
Student Loans Are A $197 Billion Money-Loser For Taxpayers: GAO |  Link
UMich: “High income consumers, who generate a disproportionate share of spending, registered large declines in both their current personal finances as well as buying conditions for durables.”
I'm sure they get right on it.
Decent jump in sentiment but still extremely negative reading.
This week's @SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast |  Link
BREAKING: The water gauge at Kaub, a chokepoint in the Rhine river in Germany, has now dropped to 39 cm, below the level typically seen as minimum for most barges. (Note: some barges can still operate, with a few of them able to cross Kaub with the water gauge at just 30 cm)
Neuroscientists, psychologists, and evolutionists agree the human brain comes pre-programmed with the need for and enjoyment of social cooperation. Our brains want it and develop better when we have it. #principleoftheday (1/2)
UMich Sentiment surges to 55.1, Exp. 52.5, Last 51.5 Inflation expectations: 1Yr: 5.0%, Exp. 5.1%, Last 5.2% 5-10Yr: 3.0%, Exp. 2.8%, Last 2.9%
Rhine Water Falls To Critical Level As Germany Faces Yet Another Shock |  Link
Buckle up, electric vehicle prices are SKYROCKETING. Recently, Ford announced it will raise the price of EVs by $6,000-$8,500 due to significant increases in raw material costs. The rush to the GREENTOPIA will cost an arm & leg. THERE'S NO GREEN-FREE LUNCH. |  Link
We'd pushed back hard on all the US recession talk in recent weeks. That's just not what US data have looked like. We've had consistently positive data surprises in recent weeks as the initial shock of Russia's invasion of Ukraine wore off. Not what recession looks like at all...
This has quietly been an awful week for earnings. Only 57% of companies reported have beaten EPS and sales estimates (had been 70%+) and 1 out of every 5 companies have lowered guidance. From our Earnings Explorer tool: |  Link
Google Searches For "Firewood" In Germany Have Exploded |  Link
CNBC redefining a "pivot" as anything less than 75 bps going forward. Problem is the only time in U.S. history that the market bottomed in the midst of a rate-hike cycle was 1987, at a forward P/E below 10 and a price/revenue multiple less than a quarter of today's. Just FYI.
*S&P 500 OPENS UP 0.5%, NASDAQ 100 CLIMBS 0.7%
Very excited to announce that Tareq Nazlawy is joining @sciencemagicxyz as our President. He previous created and built the incredible Web 3 initiatives at adidas and will help us drive adoption for the next 100m people into Web 3. More 👇 |  Link
"Central Banks Are In Shock Their Households Are Too Hot, Soon To Be Too Cold And Too Hungry" |  Link
This is an incredible deep dive into the price of mayonnaise from @tracyalloway. You gotta read it. You'll learn so much about how tricky it is to measure inflation, even at the level of a single item. |  Link
Personally I think you should start with the communication layer first, and add the formal governance layer later. If you're doing it correctly, step 1 is just defining the values and building the community, you'll only have something you actually need to govern a bit later.
The 1.4% slide in import prices and -0.7% ex-oil rounds out the data this week showing inflation rolling off the peak. At least we now know that transitory meant 16 months!! #RosenbergResearch
Nike $NKE is currently the worst performing Dow stock in 2022 with a YTD decline of 31.2%. Disney $DIS had been the weakest but it's now the 6th worst after moving to 16%+ above its 50-DMA this week. From our Trend Analyzer: |  Link
Commodity correction may have exhausted itself. Focus: #crudeoil #gold #copper #coffee #cotton #grains and continued and elevated backwardation across ags and energy. |  Link
Next financial crisis likely to centre on private markets. The rush into the sector was predicated on the continuous availability of cheap capital. |  Link
"all it will now take is the SPR being refilled just before the mid-term elections (no!), and we flip into an energy price reversal (i.e., upwards) just ahead of winter." - Rabobank
has dark mode now! Big thanks to @dcodev_ for implementing this, and to the @gitcoin bounties platform for organizing. |  Link
Good morning. The @WSJ on the Q-2 GDP contraction in the UK. While it is a small decline, this will amplify policy discussions on how best to protect the most vulnerable segments of the population while reducing the risk of a prolonged #recession. #economy Link
Every single tweet has an immediate crypto scam bot reply, and then another bot or two replying to that bot. 7,500 employees at twitter. Not one can figure this out? For reasons only known to twitter, instead of just a one-click reporting of this scam it takes multiple steps.
Rhine River One Centimeter From Danger Zone |  Link
The Inflation Reduction Act's EV tax credit requires all vehicles to contain a battery entirely sourced from North America. SPOILER ALERT: Only 22 of the 72 EV models sold in the U.S. QUALIFY. Yet another I’ll-conceived policy by the Washington’s Greenies |  Link
Global Central Bank Update... -Peru: 50 bps increase to 6.50% (13th hike). -Mexico: 75 bps increase to 8.50% (10th hike). -Argentina: 950 bps increase to 69.50% (highest since 2019). Still below their 71% inflation rate.
Setting aside everything else that was ridiculous about this week's inflation discourse, where did people get this idea that YOY inflation was 8.5% in June? I've seen it repeated all over the place
The upcoming Social Security increase that will likely exceed 9 percent is mandated by law & necessary to protect the retired. But, it will add to the deficit and points to the importance of doing more to fight inflation and our commitment to the retired. |  Link
The terminal total difficulty has been set to 58750000000000000000000. This means the ethereum PoW network now has a (roughly) fixed number of hashes left to mine. predicts the merge will happen around Sep 15, though the exact date depends on hashrate. |  Link
"GS Most Rolling Short basket +121bps today....up in 7 of last 8 trading sessions and +18% during this stretch. HF covering continues to be the most noteworthy demand on our desk."
By the time you figure out it's there you're dead. #camouflage
The CHART OF THE DAY comes today from Elements, the new Bloomberg energy and commodities newsletter. Germans are busy searching on Google for firewood !!! 📅 Subscribe (free) to get the daily newsletter in your inbox Mon-to-Fri at about 7am NY time: |  Link
Ex-President Medvedev Warns Europe Of "Possible Incidents" At Nuclear Facilities |  Link
If your only contribution to FinTwit is bitching at other people's analysis without producing any of your own I suggest fuck off.
Europe bracing for apocalypse
The SPX rally (blue, inverted) from June lows was mostly about lower real yields (orange) But over the last 10 days, equities kept rallying while 10y real rates moved 30+ bps higher Here we are either re-rating growth higher or aggressively compressing risk premia: can it last?
Seriously though, if you fell for Trump and you fell for shitcoins, how could you expect anyone to trust your judgment, financial or otherwise?
Since there's suddenly so much emphasis placed on the .5 fib retrace as the magical bull/bear barrier some added perspective $DJIA 1929 went over the .5 fib $NDX 2000 went to the .618 fib $SPX 2008 went over the .5 fib. None meant it was over.
Talking about trade prices!
I'll be on the @Benzinga PreMarket Prep show in a little bit. Tune in!
BREAKING: Scaramucci says bitcoin and solana are great long term investments
It's Over: CDC Says People Exposed To COVID No Longer Need To Quarantine |  Link
You can use Twitter to learn or you can use it to argue with people. Rarely can you do both.
Who is the most interesting professor in the world?
Futures Rise In Morbid Volumes With All Eyes On 50% Fib Retracement Level |  Link
Index drawdowns table and “super 7” drawdowns chart updated thru yesterday’s close
MA breadth charts updated thru yesterday’s close
Pharma stocks crater as investors brace for billions in heartburn drug litigation charges. |  Link
#Bitcoin is the natural remedy to an artificial disease.