ECB Behind the Curve?

Rate Hikes

Brazil 11
Peru 11
Mexico 9
Chile 8
S Korea 5

via @BearTrapsReport
“.. lots of questions from people about $AMD weakness,” writes the JPM desk. “If we are really headed for 3500 or whatever you think is the ‘bottom’ -- the names that people have fundamentally been more willing to defend over the last few months will be the last shoes to drop.”
Quote of @salihenergy
"The group has been struggling for months to deliver the volumes of oil to the market that it has pledged, as some members contend with diminished investment and operational issues."
OPEC+ is more than half a billion barrels behind on its pledge to supply world markets with oil, exacerbating concerns about the group’s ability to balance the global market

93% Of Working Americans Have A "Side Hustle", 51% Are Considering It Due To Inflation, New Study Finds
Quote of @JavierBlas
Es Sider and Ras Lanuf oil terminals under force majeure
OIL MARKET: I said this again. While everyone focuses about Russia, do not forget about Libya, where things are going from bad to worse. On Monday, Mustafa Sanalla, the chairman of the national oil company admitted: "The situation is very serious" | #OOTT
US DOLLAR: I'll review our #1 Asset Allocation in 2022 on our Q3 Macro Themes Show 11AM @HedgeyeTV
CURVE: whoever keeps calling for it to steepen keeps getting it dead wrong

10s/2s flattens to +6bps as #recession probability rises
MILK: disinflates -6.9% this AM as the Softs continue to #soften into a Consumer #recession
Google GOOGL

After the "Earnings melt-up in January" - 26% off sale at $2240.

JP Morgan Price Target Revisions

June: $2800
May: $3200
April $3450
Dec: $3250

via @BearTrapsReport
OPEC Spare Capacity Is Smaller Than Market Expects: Shell CEO
Dr. COPPER's #Quad4 Crash = -24% from its Cycle Peak
POLAND: down another -1.0% this AM to -4.9% in the last month remains Bearish TREND @Hedgeye
GERMANY: The DAX remains a dog, down another -1.2% here this AM to -9.6% in the last month as Europe enters #recesssion
AUSTRALIA: down another -1.1% Down Under last night to -7.2% in the last month
Dr. KOSPI: clobbered right at the Hedgeye TRADE red line, down -1.8% overnight = #Quad4
Quote of @C_Barraud
🇪🇺 My proxies suggest #Eurozone Economic Confidence for June could surprise upward.

*Bloomberg consensus:
- 103.0e v 105.0 prior
Quote of @BurggrabenH
Along with the decline in price, the insane backwardation we saw in a lot of industrial metals has gone away.
Aluminum in contango. Accept and don’t mix structural bull with cyclical bear.

We told u on this channel to sell base metals since 15 May 2022…

HIGH YIELD: OAS Spread widened to +521bps over Treasuries yesterday, signaling a Corporate Profit #Recession
Seems like one of the quieter overnights in awhile
More Than 900 Cases Of Hepatitis Of Unknown Origin Reported In Children, WHO Says
As Goebells said, if you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.There is no shortage of housing, contrary to what the housebuilders might say. @ianmulheirn has showed the 300k building target...
6 months after Hedgeye...

> Sell-side economists flag Eurozone recession risk in Q4
Today in 1534, Jacques Cartier was the 1st European to reach Prince Edward Island

Breaking news

Bitcoin briefly slipped under $20,000 as traders assessed revived concerns of inflation and growth for the coming months. By @shauryamalwa Link
Noma in Copenhagen, one of the world’s best restaurants which charges $700 for a vegetable lunch with wine, lost money in 2021 even after getting support from the Danish government |  Link
The US Fed is “just at the beginning” of raising interest rates to control inflation, says the head of the Cleveland Fed |  Link
Citigroup analyst Robert Kong who covered Asia banks has left the US lender, according to his LinkedIn profile |  Link
America's aging bridges are in rough shape. As of 2022, 42% are at least 50 years old. Watch the full video here: |  Link
US stocks will fall another 10% before hitting bottom as the odds of a recession have now doubled, Morgan Stanley says |  Link
The UK wants to be a destination for crypto investors, but that also means creating boundaries to protect consumers |  Link
Despite some snags, McDonald's has been eager to roll out self-ordering at the drive-thru |  Link
2 leading market pros who advise on $5 trillion in assets told us the Fed couldn't win its fight against inflation with rate hikes — and shared what investors should buy as prices keep rising |  Link
Chinese battery maker Sunwoda is working with Goldman Sachs and UBS on a $500 million listing in Switzerland |  Link
Travelers wanting to get into China will still need to contend with the intricate web of testing and bureaucratic requirements that underpin Covid Zero |  Link
Chinese mining company Tianqi Lithium is planning to raise as much as $2 billion in what’s set to be Hong Kong’s biggest listing this year |  Link
Malaysia will extend price controls on poultry next month as part of its efforts to keep food costs in check |  Link
The selloff in Persian Gulf equities won’t come to an end just yet, according to strategists, who say the risk of lower oil prices and a probable US recession will keep gains at bay |  Link
Heard on the Street: Japan and India are racing to meet ambitious climate goals that will require enormous new spending—something that is far from guaranteed |  Link
Walt Disney's board of directors unanimously voted to extend Chief Executive Officer Bob Chapek's contract for three years, a major vote of confidence in his leadership following recent controversies at the media giant $DIS |  Link
Moonpig revenue plunges as UK consumers released from lockdowns sent fewer cards to friends and family online |  Link
UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace calls Vladimir Putin a "lunatic" who suffers from "small man syndrome" |  Link
The pace of Thailand’s economic recovery, spurred by more tourism, is giving the country’s central bank more scope to raise interest rates to fight inflation, according to the World Bank |  Link
Electric-car maker Nio rejects a short-seller’s claim that it inflated revenue, saying the report contains “numerous errors” |  Link
India’s steel-export tax is a short-term headwind and is likely to be rolled back when inflation moderates, says Sajjan Jindal, the chairman of the country’s most valuable mill |  Link
Europe is now the only region where analysts are still increasing their estimates for corporate profits, according to Sanford C. Bernstein strategists |  Link
BT asks the UK government for more time to remove the Huawei core of its network |  Link
WATCH: As the summer travel season begins, Airbnb will make the ban of parties permanent in homes after seeing a sharp drop in reports of unauthorized gatherings since the prohibition was put in place in August 2020 |  Link
Byju's made an offer of about $15 a share to 2U’s board last week, says a report from Bloomberg. |  Link
Atlantic Equities says buy McDonald's, a 'defensive value play' as consumer spending slows |  Link
NATO will put 300,000 troops on high alert and the US will establish a permanent headquarters in Poland and station more F-35 aircraft in the UK to deter Russia |  Link
Incoming Philippine governor not ruling out more rate hikes |  Link Link
Toyota says supply-chain disruptions continue to hit output |  Link
Europe’s extreme heat wave on land unleashed a marine heat wave that’s still ongoing — another worrying signal of climate change |  Link
Pro-China group attacks US rare earths plant in fake social media posts |  Link
Europeans think only 68% of scientists agree that human-made climate change is happening. The real number is nearly 100% |  Link
China's travel rules are still the world's toughest, even with the shortened quarantine |  Link
China offers a “safe haven” in global equities as the nation is easing policies to boost growth at a time when most of the world is in tightening mode, according to JPMorgan |  Link
South Africa’s power utility Eskom says workers are returning to their posts, without any signs of unrest, following a meeting between the company and labor groups |  Link
The world won’t eradicate hunger by the end of the decade or meet climate goals from the Paris Agreement without a major overhaul of the agriculture sector, the UN warns |  Link
Investment firm Franklin Templeton, which oversees $1.5 trillion of assets, is looking to establish an office in Saudi Arabia |  Link
German industrial companies expect supply-chain issues to hamper output for at least ten more months |  Link
Investors have poured more than $21 billion into liquid alt funds this year through May, on pace to beat last year’s record inflows of $38.3 billion |  Link
A Republican who supports abortion rights found success in Colorado in the first primary elections since Roe v. Wade was overturned |  Link
Belgian CPI (Y/Y) Jun: 9.65% (prev 8.97%) - Belgian CPI (M/M) Jun: 0.85% (prev 0.77%)
The summer travel season has been hectic, to say the least |  Link
Whitbread names Domino's boss as next CEO |  Link
WATCH: From Coinbase Global shares tumbling again to Cristiano Ronaldo promoting NFTs for the world’s biggest crypto exchange firm, here are the top stories from the cryptoverse |  Link
Generations of Black Americans have lost their land, and their ability to build and pass on wealth, through tax lien sales via @BW Link
AeroVironment expects adjusted earnings for the fiscal year of $1.35 to $1.65 a share, below estimates of $1.75. |  Link
From @Breakingviews: If there were ever a good time for a would-be acquirer to sling an arrow in the direction of digital brokerage Robinhood, it’s probably now, says @johnsfoley Link
The ECB should consider raising interest rates by twice the planned amount next month if the inflation outlook deteriorates, according to Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus |  Link
South Africa’s central bank may consider raising its interest rate by half a percentage point for a second consecutive meeting in July, Governor Lesetja Kganyago says |  Link
Xi Jinping says the Covid Zero policy is the most “economic and effective” for China |  Link
Indoor vertical farms have been touted for their ability to grow leafy green vegetables like lettuce in warehouses year-round. Watch the video to learn how vertical farms are moving beyond the leafy greens and adding new crops. |  Link
The UK is considering maximum stakes of between £2 and £5 for online casinos and a ban on free bets under plans to address concerns about gambling addiction |  Link
German State CPI - Saxony (Y/Y) Jun: 7.7% (prev 8.0%) - German State CPI - Saxony (M/M) Jun: 0.0% (prev 1.1%)
Eurozone Economic Confidence Jun: 104.0 (est 103.0; prev 105.0) - Eurozone Industrial Confidence Jun: 7.4 (est 4.8; prev 6.3) - Eurozone Services Confidence Jun: 14.8 (est 12.8; prev 14.0) - Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jun F: -23.6 (prev -23.6)
A minority investor in AC Milan is pushing to block the sale of the team to US-based RedBird Capital Partners |  Link
What is the supply chain and how does it work? |  Link
Britain’s power networks will spend £20.9 billion expanding the grid to connect up millions of electric vehicles, smart systems and renewables projects over the next five years |  Link
From the stock exchange to brokerages, construction projects to the retail sector, Chinese state-controlled firms are increasingly dominating Hong Kong's economy |  Link
A growing number of companies are rushing to protect themselves against another surge in oil prices |  Link
Wells Fargo is launching another credit card |  Link
The crypto meltdown is hitting investors who were earning massive yields lending out their coins |  Link
Michael Burry suggests that the “Bullwhip Effect” may lead to the Fed reversing rate increases and its quantitative-tightening policy |  Link
ECB's Herodotou: Sees Inflation Peaking This Year - CNBC
$GOOGL Alphabet: JPMorgan Cuts Target Price To $2800 From $3200
Indonesian President Joko Widodo, host of this year's G-20 summit, arrives in Ukraine ahead of a visit to Russia And Finland and Sweden move closer to NATO membership as Turkey drops opposition Latest updates: |  Link
India is leading the world in ultrafast grocery delivery adoption via @BW Link
Shares on Wall Street posted steep losses, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq, following a bleak U.S. consumer confidence report that spurred worries about recession |  Link
Meggitt rose after Britain gives the green light for its £6.3 billion sale to US-based Parker |  Link
Fraud epidemic: antidote urgently required |  Link
Fed's Mester backs 75 bps hike in July if economic conditions remain same - CNBC |  Link
“It's a massive crime, probably the largest art theft in history.” How an art dealer looted Cambodia for decades — selling its treasured statues to the world's top museums Read The Big Take ⬇️ |  Link
The world’s first lie-flat “pods” are coming to an economy class airplane section near you |  Link
German State CPI - Baden-Wurttemburg (Y/Y) Jun: 7.1% (prev 7.4%) - German State CPI - Baden-Wurttemburg (M/M) Jun: 0.1% (prev 0.9%)
Sony is launching a new gaming gear brand called Inzone to try and expand its reach beyond the PlayStation |  Link
A multiple-choice online exam might not be the best way to inculcate a sense of ethics into your workforce via @opinion Link
Singapore’s surging rents raise questions about the city’s allure as a financial hub and inspire scammers to create fake online listings. There’s “a lot of greed at the moment” |  Link